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Even Weak US Retail Sales Look Strong Vs Europe

GLOBAL

Using a very rough measure of the headline CPI index as a deflator, US retail sales declined % M/M for the 5th month in the last 7 in September (by 0.4%).

  • But that still leaves "real" retail sales well above the pre-pandemic trend, as the sharp rise in goods vs services consumption has only partially reversed.
  • The UK and Eurozone produce retail sales volumes indices (the US doesn't) which were last updated in August - both are below the pre-pandemic trend.
  • While these aren't directly comparable to each other for compositional and other issues, it puts US retail "weakness" into a broader perspective, and suggests that US consumers are relatively healthy vs their global counterparts.

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