Exit Polls Show Moon's Party Losing Both Seoul, Busan Elections

Exit polls are showing that President Moon Jae-in's centrist Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) has lost the mayoralties of both the capital, Seoul, and the second most-populous city, Busan, in a blow to the president's party 11 months ahead of the presidential election.

• Ipsos Korea Seoul mayoral by-election exit poll: Oh Se-hoon (PPP, Conservative): 59%, Park Young-sun (DPK, Liberal): 37.7%.
• Ipsos Korea Busan mayoral by-election exit poll: Park Hyung-jun (PPP, Conservative): 64%, Kim Young-choon (DPK, Liberal): 33%.
• Two wins for the conservative People Power Party (PPP) will come as a significant boost after a period of turmoil for South Korea's right-wing during Moon's presidency.
• While Moon's administration was able to ride a wave of public support to a parliamentary supermajority in 2020 due to the gov'ts effective handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, this effect has worn off in 2021. Escalating house prices in South Korea's two largest cities has sparked major public anger, while Moon's DPK has also suffered from scandal, with both of the former mayors of Seoul and Busan forced from office due to sexual harassment allegations.
• It is too early to try to call next year's presidential election, with the main parties yet to select their candidates (Moon is limited to a single five-year term). Nevertheless, the political needle seems to be swinging towards the PPP at present. The party advocates tighter fiscal spending and a tougher stance towards North Korea, which could see tensions at the border escalate following a relative improvement in relations under the Moon presidency.