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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessExtending Late Session Highs Ahead Month End
- Treasury futures continued to drift higher in late trade, just off the top end of the range after the bell. Tsys curves hold steeper (2s10s +1.210 at -37.994), while trading desks noted a surge in short end Dec'23 SOFR futures, appr 200k in the minutes leading up to the bell - potential month-end funding risk related.
- Treasuries supported following a flurry of balanced Fed speak:
- While Atlanta Fed President Bostic remains "comfortable" with a patient Fed strategy to address inflation, he still expects the first rate cut this summer.
- More cautiously, NY Fed President Williams reiterated the Fed has a "ways to go to sustained 2% inflation", while Boston Fed President Collins wants greater confidence in disinflation before soften policy.
- Nevertheless, projected rate cut pricing looking steady to mildly higher at midyear vs. this morning's read: March 2024 chance of 25bp rate cut currently -2.7% w/ cumulative of -0.07bp at 5.322%; May 2024 steady at -18.4% w/ cumulative -5.3bp at 5.276%; June 2024 -55.5% from -54.5% earlier w/ cumulative cut -19.2bp at 5.137%. First full cut priced in at July w/cumulative -33.4bp at 4.995%. Fed terminal at 5.327% in Mar'24.
- Tsy Jun'24 10Y futures are trading +10.5 at 110-12, inside technicals: resistance above at 110-28+ (20-day EMA) vs. support at 109-25+ (Low Feb 23).
- Focus on tomorrow's core PCE print for January, consensus sits at 0.4% M/M and the below unrounded analyst estimates average very close to that at 0.39. Supercore PCE could come in even stronger, with two eyeing a 0.55% increase.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
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