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"Extremely Bearish" BofA Fund Manager Survey

GLOBAL MARKET/OPINION

BofA describes the results of its May Global Fund Manager Survey as "extremely bearish":

  • "highest cash levels since 9/11, biggest tech "short" since Aug'06, biggest equity UW since May'20; BofA Bull & Bear Indicator at 2.0 contrarian buy level"
  • The only "full capitulation" aspect missing from this survey, they write, is that investors expect central bank rate hikes and not cuts.
  • They see "stocks prone to imminent bear rally but ultimate lows not yet reached".
  • Global growth optimism hit an all-time survey low (net -72%), with highest stagflation fears since Aug 2008.
  • 68% see inflation dropping in coming quarters.
  • 34% expect bond yields to rise, with 78% seeing short yields rising.
  • The Fed "put" is seen coming in at 3,529 on the S&P.
  • Top "tail risk" is seen as hawkish central banks; Number 2 is recession.
  • Cash levels have surged to a 20 year high 6.1% from 5.5% previously.
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