Fabio Fois at Barclays notes that many........>

ITALY: Fabio Fois at Barclays notes that many Italian newspapers are now

reporting that there will be an election on 4 March. This is just 112 days from

today. 

- Fois believes that it is significant that the newspaper reports suggesting

that PM Gentiloni will remain Prime Minister and will not resign ahead of

Parliamentary dissolution is significant, for two reasons:

- Firstly, the polling hints at a complex post-election scenario, "This should

help contain, at least in the very near term, concerns over the risk of a sudden

political stability cliff straight after elections"

- Secondly, "if confirmed, the support of President Mattarella to the potential

decision of PM Gentiloni of remaining in office would signal that the President

will likely play a critical role in Italian politics going forward"

- Barclays' baseline is that the election will deliver a very wide and

heterogeneous coalition, which will require a active President that may need to

name a temporary PM.