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ITALY: Fabio Fois at Barclays notes that many Italian newspapers are now
reporting that there will be an election on 4 March. This is just 112 days from
- Fois believes that it is significant that the newspaper reports suggesting
that PM Gentiloni will remain Prime Minister and will not resign ahead of
Parliamentary dissolution is significant, for two reasons:
- Firstly, the polling hints at a complex post-election scenario, "This should
help contain, at least in the very near term, concerns over the risk of a sudden
political stability cliff straight after elections"
- Secondly, "if confirmed, the support of President Mattarella to the potential
decision of PM Gentiloni of remaining in office would signal that the President
will likely play a critical role in Italian politics going forward"
- Barclays' baseline is that the election will deliver a very wide and
heterogeneous coalition, which will require a active President that may need to
name a temporary PM.