Fabio Fois at Barclays sees 4 possible.........>

BTPS: Fabio Fois at Barclays sees 4 possible coalitions after the Italian

election result, believing it would take 39-40% of the vote to control both

chambers: Centre-Right + others. This would include FI, Lega, Brothers and UDC

that will have around 36.5% of the vote and other smaller parties. He sees this

as market-friendly.

- A PD, LeU and 5SM coalition. Barclays see this as negative for markets since

M5S would be in government.

- Grand coalition: formed by "stable traditional parties PD and FI, with the

support of MPs joining from other parties". Market positive

- Anti-Establishment Grand Coalition including 5SM, Lega and BoI. Faoi argues

that "This outcome likely would be market negative in the near and medium term".

- Finally, President Matarella could ask a technocrat to form a temporary

government until new elections could be held.

- The newly elected government is first expected to gather on 23 March.