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Retail Sales due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
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  • Due to the volatile nature of this release, we don't place much weight on retail sales (and we don't think the MPC does either).
  • Following broad-based weaker than expected retail sales volumes in June, retail sales are expected to only reverse part of the decline from June in July, a month in which whilst rainfall was average in the UK, was wetter than average for areas in southern England.
  • Bloomberg consensus sees retail sales inc and excl fuel to rise 0.6% M/M (vs -1.2% and -1.5% priors) with an upside skew amongst analyst estimates for sales inc fuel mostly ranging from 0% to 1.0%. Similarly analyst estimates for retails sales excl fuel M/M range from 0% to 1.2%.
  • On an annual basis, both the excl and inc fuel retail sales Bloomberg median looks for a 1.4% increase (vs a fall of 0.8% excl fuel and 0.2% incl fuel in June). The distribution of analyst estimates for both Y/Y measures have an upside skew with excl fuel estimates ranging mostly from 1.1% to 1.5%, and incl fuel ranging mostly from 1.1% to 1.7%.
  • Survey data is mixed, with the CBI reporting weak retail sales in July, whilst the BRC suggests a slight improvement in sales albeit only a small rise (although this may be due to the latter being measured in value terms rather than volume). The CBI also expects sales in August to be soft.
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  • Due to the volatile nature of this release, we don't place much weight on retail sales (and we don't think the MPC does either).
  • Following broad-based weaker than expected retail sales volumes in June, retail sales are expected to only reverse part of the decline from June in July, a month in which whilst rainfall was average in the UK, was wetter than average for areas in southern England.
  • Bloomberg consensus sees retail sales inc and excl fuel to rise 0.6% M/M (vs -1.2% and -1.5% priors) with an upside skew amongst analyst estimates for sales inc fuel mostly ranging from 0% to 1.0%. Similarly analyst estimates for retails sales excl fuel M/M range from 0% to 1.2%.
  • On an annual basis, both the excl and inc fuel retail sales Bloomberg median looks for a 1.4% increase (vs a fall of 0.8% excl fuel and 0.2% incl fuel in June). The distribution of analyst estimates for both Y/Y measures have an upside skew with excl fuel estimates ranging mostly from 1.1% to 1.5%, and incl fuel ranging mostly from 1.1% to 1.7%.
  • Survey data is mixed, with the CBI reporting weak retail sales in July, whilst the BRC suggests a slight improvement in sales albeit only a small rise (although this may be due to the latter being measured in value terms rather than volume). The CBI also expects sales in August to be soft.