Free Trial

Fed Hike Expectations Trimmed From Heady Asia Session

STIR FUTURES
  • Heavily tracking the move in Treasuries, implied hikes have cooled from on overnight peak of 228bp to 220bp out to year-end.
  • Immediate meetings continue to be more resilient, with 49.5bps for May and 97bps for June, implying a 58% chance of 100bps and 36% chance of 125bps over the two meetings.
  • Triple Fedspeak today although only Daly (’24 voter) is ‘new’. Yesterday, Evans (’23) and Bostic (’24) pushed back on 75bp hikes but envisage going at least some way above neutral. Separately, Kashkari (’24) watches Chinese lockdowns to see whether the Fed should do more than it expects.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.