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Fed Hike Pricing Continues Post-Payrolls Nudge Higher

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds futures have ground higher overnight and through the European morning on broader risk-on sentiment with E-minis firming rather than any obvious drivers.
  • It’s broadly a continuation of the small firming seen post-payrolls as the UK returns from the Jubilee bank holiday, with limited moves over immediate meetings (52bp Jun, 102bp Jul) but beyond that firming nearer post-May FOMC highs with 144bp for Sep and 200bps to year-end (five meetings).
  • Limited scheduled drivers today: the FOMC is now in media blackout ahead of the Jun 14-15 meeting and no data of note.

Cumulative hikes implied by FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures (%pts)Source: Bloomberg

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