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Looking Though China PMIs

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AOFM Weekly Issuance Slate

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PMI Prints Weaker In Aggregate For September

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Fed Hikes Unwind Most Of Payrolls Lurch But No More

STIR FUTURES
  • A notable miss for CPI inflation see Fed Funds implied hikes unwind the post-payrolls lurch higher, with a 60bp hike priced for the Sep FOMC from 69-70bps prior.
  • Holding slightly above pre-payrolls levels further out the curve, with a cumulative 112bp of hikes to year-end and 118bps to an implied peak of 3.52% at the Mar’23 FOMC, down from almost 3.69% shortly before CPI.
  • A largely level shift further into 2023 still sees more than 50bps of cuts priced to Dec’23.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied rate at given meetingsSource: Bloomberg

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  • A notable miss for CPI inflation see Fed Funds implied hikes unwind the post-payrolls lurch higher, with a 60bp hike priced for the Sep FOMC from 69-70bps prior.
  • Holding slightly above pre-payrolls levels further out the curve, with a cumulative 112bp of hikes to year-end and 118bps to an implied peak of 3.52% at the Mar’23 FOMC, down from almost 3.69% shortly before CPI.
  • A largely level shift further into 2023 still sees more than 50bps of cuts priced to Dec’23.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied rate at given meetingsSource: Bloomberg