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Fed Hikes Within Yesterday Range Pre-Payrolls

STIR FUTURES
  • There is 71bps for Jul, 125bp for Sep and 178bp for Dec meetings with a peak 185bp with the Mar’23 meeting to 3.44%. The latter has fluctuated this week between 3.20% on Wed prior to the ISM services beat, and 3.50% yesterday.
  • Bullard and Waller yesterday still backed a 75bp hike for July and see a soft landing. Waller sees it followed by “probably 50 in September. And then after that we can debate about whether to go back down to 25s, or if inflation doesn’t seem to be coming down we have to do more”.
  • Bostic (’24 voter) to speak to CNBC at 0845ET before NY Fed’s Williams speaks in Puerto Rico on topics including US mon pol and the economic outlook at 1100ET. Williams noted on Jun 28 the debate at the July decision will be between 50 and 75bps whilst definitely seeing the need to get rates to 3-3.5% this year.

Source: Bloomberg

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