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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates have reversed most of Friday’s payrolls-related drop for Sept and Nov meetings and unwound up to half of the much larger drop further into 2024, buoyed by a hawkish Bowman (voter) over the weekend and with limited impact from a characteristically dovish NY Fed’s Williams (voter) earlier today.
- Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +4bp Sep (+1bp from Fri close), +9bp Nov to 5.42% terminal (+2bp).
- Cuts from Nov terminal: 3bp to Dec’23 (from 4bp), 60bp to Jun’24 (from 65bp) and 131bp to Dec’24 (from 139bp).
- Bowman expects additional rate “increases” whilst Williams sees the need to hike further as “an open question”. Bowman speaks again along with Bostic at a Fed Listens event at 0830ET. Recall Bostic has already spoken after Friday’s payrolls data, noting it was largely as expected and having previously not seen the need for a Sept hike and with rate cuts not starting until 2H24 at the earliest.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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