The move higher in both unemployment and underemployment sees FOMC-dated OIS ease vs. pre-release levels, before the space recovers from dovish extremes as the totality of the data is assessed.

That leaves FOMC-dated OIS showing a terminal policy rate of 5.42% vs. ~5.45% pre-release, equating to 9bp of tightening priced through November.
Beyond that point, ~55bp of cuts are now priced ~through June ’24, a touch deeper than the ~53bp seen pre-data.

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The move higher in both unemployment and underemployment sees FOMC-dated OIS ease vs. pre-release levels, before the space recovers from dovish extremes as the totality of the data is assessed.

That leaves FOMC-dated OIS showing a terminal policy rate of 5.42% vs. ~5.45% pre-release, equating to 9bp of tightening priced through November.
Beyond that point, ~55bp of cuts are now priced ~through June ’24, a touch deeper than the ~53bp seen pre-data.

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Fed Pricing Softens A Little Post-NFPs