Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates have extended Friday’s post-payrolls shunt higher, aided by Chair Powell’s weekend remarks plus a hawkish BoJ FT sources piece.
- Cumulative cuts: 5.5bp Mar (10bp pre-NFPs), 20bp May (vs 33bp), 41bp Jun (vs 60bp) and 117bp Dec (vs 143bp). The Dec’24 implied effective rate of 4.16% is closing in on pre-Dec FOMC levels of ~4.2%.
- Powell’s aired remarks were similar in tone to Wednesday’s presser. There are questions as to creative license from the host Scott Pelley re headlines around the timing of a first cut (midyear and with reference to the election, which Powell explicitly doesn’t factor in in the transcript) plus potential for 50bp clips.
- “The prudent thing to do is to, is to just give it some time and see that the data continue to confirm that inflation is moving down to 2% in a sustainable way […] We've said that we want to be more confident that inflation is moving down to 2%. And I would say, and I did say yesterday, that I think it's not likely that this committee will reach that level of confidence in time for the March meeting, which is in seven weeks.”
- Powell transcript: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/59825/60.Minutes.Chair.Powell.2.4.24.pdf
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok