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Fed Rate Path Only Slightly Higher Post U.Mich As Sentiment Drags

STIR FUTURES
  • Earlier in the cycle, the strength of U.Mich long-term inflation expectations would have won out, but the surprisingly large decline in consumer sentiment weighs heavily on Fed rate expectations.
  • It leaves Fed Funds implied rates only slowly drifting higher post release and little changed from the earlier pop higher on Gov Bowman noting the lack of progress in inflation’s downward path.
  • Cumulative changes from current effective: 1bp Jun (+1.5bp), -9bp Jul (+2.5bp), -26bp Sep (+3.5bp), -50bp Nov (+4bp), -75bp Dec (+3.5bp) and -99bp Jan (+4bp).
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