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Fed Rate Path Unwinds Intraday Strength But Holds Post-Payroll Shift Higher

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have seen a sizeable pullback off highs from early in the session, but still hold onto a small nudge higher for meetings from March onwards.
  • Data hasn’t played a role today, with a decline/steadiness in NY Fed inflation expectations (contradicting some of the volatility seen in the U.Mich equivalent) having little impact at the time.
  • US CPI kicks off an important two days. A reminder of the preview here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/58423/USCPIPrevDec2023.pdf
  • There is currently a cumulative 11bp of cuts for March, 26bp for May and 110bp for end-2024. The latter is off an intraday low of 104bp but still up from 111bp yesterday and 122bp just before payrolls on Friday.

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