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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- Fed Funds implied rates have seen a sizeable push lower through US hours, unwinding yesterday’s extended increase to leave a path closer to post-payrolls levels.
- Cumulative cuts: 6.5bp Mar, 21bp May, 44bp June and 122bp Dec.
- There’s no single driver but rather likely a confluence of factors, including a natural paring of Monday's continued large increases, continued regional bank pressures (regional banks -1.4%, NYCB -20%) and the NY debt report for Q4 including another shift higher in the transition to delinquencies for credit cards and auto loans in particular.
- Fedspeak saw Mester (’24 voter retiring in June) expecting the Fed to gain confidence to cut “later this year” which didn’t move the needle at the time, before much more recently reiterating she still leans towards three rate cuts for 2024. Kashkari (non-voter) meanwhile was less direct than yesterday’s essay although he did reiterate that the supply side healing so quickly has been the main driver of disinflation rather than tight policy.
- Still to come today, Harker (non-voter) at 1900ET before tomorrow sees Fedspeak focus on Governor Kugler and Boston Fed’s Collins considering their lack of prior appearances.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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