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Fed Sept Pricing Back At Pre-FOMC Minutes Levels

STIR FUTURES
  • Fed Funds implied hikes have churned higher overnight, possibly a spillover from continued European energy woes. The 66bps (+3bps) for the Sep FOMC is back to levels just prior to last week’s FOMC minutes taking the edge off 75bp expectations, although remains below the ~70bps priced prior to the CPI miss.
  • Further out, the 140bp (+7bps) to a peak 3.73% in Mar’23 is below pre-FOMC minutes levels but above pre-CPI. Fed talk of higher for longer has helped this increase although whilst trimmed, there is still almost 40bps of cuts priced to end’23.
  • No Fedspeak today with attention firmly on Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday.



Source: Bloomberg

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