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Fed Terminal Rate At Pre-Regional Banking Crisis Level

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have modestly extended yesterday’s climb, for the most part rising a further 1-2bps.
  • It comes ahead of Powell’s keynote Jackson Hole address before a raft of other Fedspeak including hearing from Mester (’24 voter) for the first time since the July FOMC.
  • It leaves +5bp for Sep (+0.5bp on the day) and a cumulative +14bp for Nov for a terminal of 5.47% (+1bp). The terminal last closed higher on Mar 9 (then seen landing with the July meeting) at the start of SVB deliberations.
  • Cuts from terminal: 1.5bp to Dec’23, 41bp to Jun’24 and 108bp to Dec’24.

Source: Bloomberg

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