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Final Month-End Models Point to Neutral USD Signals

FOREX
Final month-end FX model summary (in no particular order):
  • Barclays: Models point to weak USD buying vs. Most majors, with the EUR signal neutral. This signal flipped from their prelim run earlier in the week.
  • Citi: Final update to the month-end model suggests no USD signal today. Average signal across G10 crosses works out at exactly zero. This is the first time this has happened in Citi's model since 2004. Signals for EUR and GBP are marginal buys, suggesting that the strongest relative signals today are for EURJPY and GBPJPY upside.
  • Credit Agricole: The moves in equity markets, when adjusted for market capitalisation and FX performance this month, suggest that month-end portfolio-rebalancing flows are likely to be neutral across the board. Their corporate flow model points to EUR/USD selling at the end of the month. This follows weeks of EUR buying throughout the month of January. Due to the neutral month-end rebalancing signal, they do not enter a trade this month.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
Energy BulletsCommodities
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
Energy BulletsCommodities

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