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COLOMBIA: Finance Minister Guevara Confirms Resignation, January Trade Due

COLOMBIA
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  • Finance Minister Guevara confirmed his resignation overnight, stepping down from the role after only three and a half months in office. In a post on X, he said that the decision was made following a “calm and friendly” conversation with President Petro. It came shortly after the Senate’s social security committee voted to shelve the government’s labour reform last night.
  • Guevara’s replacement has yet to be named, although there were reports yesterday that Germán Ávila, previously the President of the Bicentenario group, would be appointed to the role. Whoever is appointed, they will become the fourth person to hold the position throughout President Petro's term.
  • Today, trade balance figures for January will be published at 1500GMT(1100ET), with consensus for the deficit to have widened to $1.3bn, from $835.9mn in December. The data follow stronger-than-expected economic activity data yesterday, which revealed a 2.7% y/y expansion in the economy in January.
  • Despite the unexpected rise of inflation in February, analysts still expect BanRep to deliver a 25bp rate cut on March 31 according to this week’s BanRep survey, after unexpectedly pausing in January. However, the latest political turmoil and uncertainty over the outlook for fiscal policy risk a continuation of that pause.
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  • Finance Minister Guevara confirmed his resignation overnight, stepping down from the role after only three and a half months in office. In a post on X, he said that the decision was made following a “calm and friendly” conversation with President Petro. It came shortly after the Senate’s social security committee voted to shelve the government’s labour reform last night.
  • Guevara’s replacement has yet to be named, although there were reports yesterday that Germán Ávila, previously the President of the Bicentenario group, would be appointed to the role. Whoever is appointed, they will become the fourth person to hold the position throughout President Petro's term.
  • Today, trade balance figures for January will be published at 1500GMT(1100ET), with consensus for the deficit to have widened to $1.3bn, from $835.9mn in December. The data follow stronger-than-expected economic activity data yesterday, which revealed a 2.7% y/y expansion in the economy in January.
  • Despite the unexpected rise of inflation in February, analysts still expect BanRep to deliver a 25bp rate cut on March 31 according to this week’s BanRep survey, after unexpectedly pausing in January. However, the latest political turmoil and uncertainty over the outlook for fiscal policy risk a continuation of that pause.