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GERMANY: Official Interim Election Results Tilt Towards Missing BSW & FDP

GERMANY
Policy NewsCEEMEAEurozoneGermanyBulletPolitical RiskFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsMarkets

Official interim results on the German parliamentary election closely tilt towards the possibility of a two-party coalition of Union (CDU/CSU) and SPD, as they see both FDP and BSW to not secure enough votes for parliamentary representation.

  • Results are as follows: CDU/CSU 28.6%, AfD 20.8%, SPD 16.4%, Greens 11.6%, Left 8.8%, BSW 4.972%, FDP 4.3%.
  • Even though the BSW's gap to 5% is very narrow, chances of the final results tilting in favour of them appear rather low at this stage.
  • This would make possible a two-party "grand coalition" of union (CDU/CSU) and SPD, which would be associated with bringing higher stabiltiy in government compared to a three-party outcome.
  • For a 2/3rds qualified majority for potential debt brake reform, 420 out of the likely 630 Bundestag seats would be required - and the ~414 seats of the 'core' parties represented (CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens) would fall short of that. Thus, approval from the Left will be needed, who are in favour of debt brake reform in theory but might push for concessions from the government, complicating negotiations.
  • Detailed results here: https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/bundestagswahlen/2025/ergebnisse/bund-99.html
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Official interim results on the German parliamentary election closely tilt towards the possibility of a two-party coalition of Union (CDU/CSU) and SPD, as they see both FDP and BSW to not secure enough votes for parliamentary representation.

  • Results are as follows: CDU/CSU 28.6%, AfD 20.8%, SPD 16.4%, Greens 11.6%, Left 8.8%, BSW 4.972%, FDP 4.3%.
  • Even though the BSW's gap to 5% is very narrow, chances of the final results tilting in favour of them appear rather low at this stage.
  • This would make possible a two-party "grand coalition" of union (CDU/CSU) and SPD, which would be associated with bringing higher stabiltiy in government compared to a three-party outcome.
  • For a 2/3rds qualified majority for potential debt brake reform, 420 out of the likely 630 Bundestag seats would be required - and the ~414 seats of the 'core' parties represented (CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens) would fall short of that. Thus, approval from the Left will be needed, who are in favour of debt brake reform in theory but might push for concessions from the government, complicating negotiations.
  • Detailed results here: https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/bundestagswahlen/2025/ergebnisse/bund-99.html