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First Sub-200k Week For Initial Claims Since Jan, But Higher Continuing Claims

US DATA
  • Initial jobless claims were lower than expected at a seasonally adjusted 198k (cons 210k) in the week to Oct 14, covering a payrolls reference week, after a marginally upward revised 211k (initial 209k).
  • It’s the first sub-200k week since January and whilst we don’t put too much weight on a given week, the four-week average isn’t far off at 206k.
  • Recall that in 2019 for a comparison with prior periods of tightness, initial claims averaged 218k and saw a low of 197k for the year.
  • Based off a 19k drop in the non-seasonally adjusted data to 181k considering mixed results for the same week in previous years, it looks like a reasonably fair SA process at first glance.
  • Continuing claims provided an offsetting miss though, surprisingly increasing to 1734k (cons 1706k) from 1705k, marking its highest since early July.

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