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Flash Forecast Confirms Euro CPI at 8.1%

EUROZONE DATA
MNI (London)

EZ FINAL MAY HICP +0.8% M/M, +8.1% Y/Y; APR +7.4% Y/Y

EZ FINAL MAY CORE HICP +0.5% M/M, +3.8% Y/Y; APR +3.5% Y/Y
  • The final May inflation print confirmed earlier flash estimates, reaching a fresh Euro-era high of +8.1% y/y. Prices accelerated by 0.8% m/m, quickening by 0.2pp on April.
  • The highest contributions came again for energy (contributing +3.87pp), food, alcohol, tobacco (+1.59pp), services (+1.46pp) and non-energy industrial goods (+1.13pp). Core inflation was recorded at +3.8% y/y in May, close to double the ECB's target and rising 0.5% m/m alone.
  • Eastern European countries continued to see more alarming inflation rates, led by Estonia (+20.1% y/y), Lithuania (+18.5% y/y), Latvia (+16.8% y/y) and Czechia (+15.2% y/y).
  • Following last week's ECB decision to finally end net new asset purchases and foreshadowing of the July 25bps hike to -0.25%, today's data reconfirms the need for action. The ad hoc GC meeting held on Wednesday saw flexibility in reinvesting PEPP redemptions confirmed and acceleration of creating the new anti-fragmentation instrument.


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