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STIR: Flash PMIs Land With Fed Looming Large

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  • Fed Funds implied rates have modestly pared Friday’s increase, which built into the second half of the session with support from higher oil prices. Recall that import prices were stronger than expected but with a benign readthrough for core PCE.
  • Last week's CPI report still weighs on Dec/Jan meetings but dovish implications have been more than reversed further into 2025.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 24bp Dec 18, 28bp Jan, 42bp Mar, 49bp May and 59bp June.
  • Wednesday’s FOMC decision looms large but in the near-term, there’s modest focus on flash US PMIs for December at 0945ET. https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Dec2024_c2bc263e41.pdf

  • The US Services PMI has been strong for some time now, hovering around 55 since May before increasing to 56.1 in November. Against that, the ISM Services reading saw some surprise weakness in November as it fell from 56.0 to 52.1 for its lowest since Aug. 

     

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  • Fed Funds implied rates have modestly pared Friday’s increase, which built into the second half of the session with support from higher oil prices. Recall that import prices were stronger than expected but with a benign readthrough for core PCE.
  • Last week's CPI report still weighs on Dec/Jan meetings but dovish implications have been more than reversed further into 2025.
  • Cumulative cuts from 4.58% effective: 24bp Dec 18, 28bp Jan, 42bp Mar, 49bp May and 59bp June.
  • Wednesday’s FOMC decision looms large but in the near-term, there’s modest focus on flash US PMIs for December at 0945ET. https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Dec2024_c2bc263e41.pdf

  • The US Services PMI has been strong for some time now, hovering around 55 since May before increasing to 56.1 in November. Against that, the ISM Services reading saw some surprise weakness in November as it fell from 56.0 to 52.1 for its lowest since Aug.