August 18, 2022 14:55 GMT
Morgan Stanley: The July minutes had a "balanced tone", but "revealed a firm commitment to remain on an aggressive path of policy tightening, beyond a higher short-run neutral level, and maintain that higher level for longer".
- Powell's omission of "longer run" when describing the policy rate as in the range of neutral was clarified: Rates are "now in the range of longer run neutral while at the same time “some” participants recognize that short run neutral is somewhere above the current level."
- MS continues to see 50bp hikes in Sept and Nov, with a final 25bp hike in Dec.
Goldman Sachs: The minutes "provided little new information". The "inflation language was hawkish but broadly as expected".
- Goldman still sees a 50bp hike in Sep and concluding the cycle with 25bp in Nov and Dec.