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FOMC Minutes Preview (2/2): Setting The Table For September

More sell-side views on today's FOMC minutes:

  • JPMorgan: "will be watched for signals about monetary policy, and we may use them to evaluate our call that the FOMC will start using outcome-based forward guidance at the September meeting"
  • BNYMellon: " to show that the Committee is actively discussing average inflation targeting in July... The minutes for the June meeting showed that it discussed – but for the time being has seemingly shelved – curve control. Will the FOMC have specifically broached average inflation targeting?"
  • Nomura: "could shed additional clarity on the expected timeline for rolling out new policy innovations... important to evaluate how the FOMC views market expectations for policy and whether introducing some form of outcome-based forward guidance will be appropriate... any discussions on the pace and composition of purchases for Treasury securities and agency MBS would be noteworthy... may include a discussion on lengthening the maturity of their current purchases"
  • BMO FICC: "focus will be on any discussion around the evolution in forward guidance. It seems likely at this point that some form of state-dependent commitment will be rolled out as early as next month, though at this point it's still a bit opaque what the trigger will be... further discussion around the evolution of the Fed's QE program, specifically as it relates to yield curve control or the possibility of shifting the distribution of purchases to more directly target longer tenors. It's hard to imagine that a firm commitment will emerge in either direction just yet"
  • Barclays: expect minutes "to reaffirm support for a shift to inflation averaging that opens the door to make-upstrategies on inflation. We will pay attention to whether the committee sees forward guidance as including thresholds on bothunemployment or inflation and whether yield curve control has support"

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