For the June dot plot in the Summary of.........>

FED: For the June dot plot in the Summary of Economic Projections, sell-side

expectations are for an unchanged Fed funds median through the end of the

horizon (2022), though some dots will point to a hike. Longer-run dot seen

lowered from 2.50% in Dec, by 25 or even 50bps; one analyst says could go <1%.

- Generally speaking, macro forecasts are seen as being in line with most

mainstream projections, incl from the IMF etc, including a major rebound in

activity in H2 2020. Some analysts see the FOMC issuing a range of scenarios -

and some see the FOMC refraining from providing an SEP at all.

- MNI's View: Would be a major surprise to see anything but zero-lower-bound

rates in the Fed funds median through the end of the forecast horizon in 2022,

or to see inflation rising above the 2% objective by that time. (Also unlikely:

any negative dots.)

- We will be most focused on the longer run median funds dot, which basically

represents the level above which the Fed sees policy getting tight. It could

provide a sense of the degree to which the FOMC sees the economy permanently

negatively impacted by COVID-19 (a subject of much Fed Speak of late).