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Foreign Affairs Minister With Blinken, BanRep Decision Thursday

COLOMBIA
  • Analysts remain evenly split over the potential outcome of Thursday’s central bank meeting. Surveyed forecasts point to a close call between a 25 or 50bp hike that would see the overnight lending rate reach 13.00-13.25%.
    • Despite headline inflation remaining at 13.28% Y/y and core inflation rising to 10.86% in February, analysts note that median one-year ahead inflation expectations peaked in January, while two-year ahead expectations returned to the target band’s top-end for the first time since Aug-2022.
    • Easing pressure on inflation expectations along with the central bank’s most recent rhetoric regarding policy being restrictive enough to ensure CPI convergence to target, bolster the argument that a relatively dovish outcome may arise on Thursday.
  • Separately, Colombia Foreign Affairs Minister Alvaro Leyva begins a two-day set of meetings with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
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