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FOREX: Safe Havens Underperform Amid Softer US Tsy Futures

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MNI (SYDNEY) - The USD BBDXY index sits modestly higher, last near 1269.4, still comfortably within recent ranges. Yen is the weakest performer in Monday trade so far, off nearly 0.60% to 153.50/55. 

  • The bias in US Tsy futures has been lower, although much of the move took place in the first part of trade. 10yr futures are off -08, lending some support for the USD, particularly against the yen. CHF is also weaker off close to 0.20%.
  • USD/JPY dipped modestly for Friday's session, so the first part of Monday trade is seeing some of this yen outperformance unwound. Earlier lows in the pair were at 152.64. Post US election highs were 154.71, so we still have distance to close that gap.
  • There has been no cash Tsy trading due to the US holiday later, while news flow has been light. Other Trump related trades have also been solid, with Bitcoin rising to a fresh record high.  
  • We had the BoJ Summary of Opinions earlier, which showed a wide variety of viewpoints. In sum, a cautious approach to further rate hikes is likely.
  • AUD/USD is up a touch but still under 0.6600. The regional equity tone is mostly negative, with HK markets the worst performers. Disappointment around China's stimulus announcement from late on Friday likely carrying over. AUD/JPY is up to 101.10/15, but sub recent highs of 102.405.
  • NZD/USD has crept higher, last near 0.5970/75. Q4 inflation expectations from the RBNZ’s business survey showed that they remain well anchored close to the mid-point of the target band. 1-year out they moderated to 2.05% from 2.4% while 2-years out they were slightly higher at 2.1% from 2.0%. The Kiwi rose modestly on the data, but there was no follow through.
  • There are no data in the US or Europe with Veterans/Remembrance Day observed in a number of countries. ECB’s McCaul speaks later.
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MNI (SYDNEY) - The USD BBDXY index sits modestly higher, last near 1269.4, still comfortably within recent ranges. Yen is the weakest performer in Monday trade so far, off nearly 0.60% to 153.50/55. 

  • The bias in US Tsy futures has been lower, although much of the move took place in the first part of trade. 10yr futures are off -08, lending some support for the USD, particularly against the yen. CHF is also weaker off close to 0.20%.
  • USD/JPY dipped modestly for Friday's session, so the first part of Monday trade is seeing some of this yen outperformance unwound. Earlier lows in the pair were at 152.64. Post US election highs were 154.71, so we still have distance to close that gap.
  • There has been no cash Tsy trading due to the US holiday later, while news flow has been light. Other Trump related trades have also been solid, with Bitcoin rising to a fresh record high.  
  • We had the BoJ Summary of Opinions earlier, which showed a wide variety of viewpoints. In sum, a cautious approach to further rate hikes is likely.
  • AUD/USD is up a touch but still under 0.6600. The regional equity tone is mostly negative, with HK markets the worst performers. Disappointment around China's stimulus announcement from late on Friday likely carrying over. AUD/JPY is up to 101.10/15, but sub recent highs of 102.405.
  • NZD/USD has crept higher, last near 0.5970/75. Q4 inflation expectations from the RBNZ’s business survey showed that they remain well anchored close to the mid-point of the target band. 1-year out they moderated to 2.05% from 2.4% while 2-years out they were slightly higher at 2.1% from 2.0%. The Kiwi rose modestly on the data, but there was no follow through.
  • There are no data in the US or Europe with Veterans/Remembrance Day observed in a number of countries. ECB’s McCaul speaks later.