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FOREX: Soft Iron Ore Undermines AUD/JPY as Sell-Off Accelerates

FOREX
  • The USD Index is rangebound, with early strength through the European open wholly reversed to keep most major pairs flat headed into the NY crossover. JPY remains the currency in focus, and a poor showing from Chinese equities in Tuesday trade helped JPY print a new recovery high, pressuring USD/JPY back below Y156.00. 
  • AUD/JPY remains the cross in focus on the break of the uptrendline last week, and now the close below the 50-dma. Clustered support at the Y102.65 100-dma and the early June low at 102.61 will be closely watched - particularly on any extension of the weakness in iron ore prices after Dalian-listed contracts fell close to 1.7% in Asia-Pac. 
  • NOK remains weaker after a poor start to the week. USD/NOK is narrowing the gap with 11.1385, the early May high. It's EUR/NOK that could trigger a further break here, as the cross tests 12.0062 - the cycle high posted in November last year.
  • Richmond Fed and existing home sales data are top of the schedule for the US today, but markets are likely to be more sensitive to the prelim PMI print tomorrow. There are no central bank speakers of note, with both the BoE and Federal Reserve inside their pre-meeting media blackout periods.
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