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FOREX: USD Index Crests at New High, AUD Firms on Solid Jobs Stats

FOREX
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  • Broad greenback strength across Asia-Pac trade and a further push higher in USD/JPY has tipped the USD Index through yesterday's highs, meaning the index has now posted higher highs in 11 of the past 15 sessions. This puts the ICE USD Index at it's strongest since early August, with strong US equity performance and the widening gap between Sep'25 Fed-ECB OIS-implied rates lending considerable support.
  • AUD trades well on the back of better-than-expected jobs data overnight. Australia added 64.1k jobs over the month, well ahead of expectations, and the unemployment came in lower than forecast, with a downward revision to the August print. RBA easing expectations have been pushed back as a result, aiding AUD/USD's recovery off weekly lows today. This has kept AUD/NZD north of the $1.10 handle, but October's high of 1.1092 is out of reach for now.
  • The ECB decision takes focus ahead, with markets primed for a further 25bps rate cut from the ECB. It's signalling for the December decision that could prove more price-sensitive, and a suggestion that back-to-back rate cuts are becoming the norm would prove dovish relative to consensus, and could spell further downside risk for the EUR.
  • Weekly jobless claims data in the US will also be a focus, and will be eyed for any further hurricane impacts. Evidence showed Hurricane Helene took a toll on last week's numbers, and it may be the same case for Hurricane Milton in today's release.
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  • Broad greenback strength across Asia-Pac trade and a further push higher in USD/JPY has tipped the USD Index through yesterday's highs, meaning the index has now posted higher highs in 11 of the past 15 sessions. This puts the ICE USD Index at it's strongest since early August, with strong US equity performance and the widening gap between Sep'25 Fed-ECB OIS-implied rates lending considerable support.
  • AUD trades well on the back of better-than-expected jobs data overnight. Australia added 64.1k jobs over the month, well ahead of expectations, and the unemployment came in lower than forecast, with a downward revision to the August print. RBA easing expectations have been pushed back as a result, aiding AUD/USD's recovery off weekly lows today. This has kept AUD/NZD north of the $1.10 handle, but October's high of 1.1092 is out of reach for now.
  • The ECB decision takes focus ahead, with markets primed for a further 25bps rate cut from the ECB. It's signalling for the December decision that could prove more price-sensitive, and a suggestion that back-to-back rate cuts are becoming the norm would prove dovish relative to consensus, and could spell further downside risk for the EUR.
  • Weekly jobless claims data in the US will also be a focus, and will be eyed for any further hurricane impacts. Evidence showed Hurricane Helene took a toll on last week's numbers, and it may be the same case for Hurricane Milton in today's release.