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FOREX: USD/JPY Eyes Bear Trigger and Pullback Low Pre-NFP

FOREX
  • Ahead of the NFP report for August, JPY has rallied further, extending strength on the week and keeping USD/JPY pinned toward the pullback lows posted in early August at 141.70.
  • The August jobs report should prove key Friday and could set the tone for the Fed rate decision on September 18th. Consensus looks for +165k today and a lower U/E rate of 4.2%, but the whisper number looks lower at 152k and the broad USD weakness posted since the beginning of this week makes it clear markets are gearing for a soft number.
  • With September pricing pinned between a 25 and a 50bps rate cut from the Fed, conviction in either direction should prove market-moving today, with the USD Index just 0.4% off the bear trigger and key support at 100.514.
  • Overnight USD vols were well bid into the Thursday close, suggesting markets ascribe a high likelihood of a sharp market move upon release today. EUR/USD overnight vols topped 14 points yesterday, the highest level since mid-December's central bank deluge, meaning markets price a ~75 pip swing in the pair.
  • Outside of the jobs report, the CAD equivalent is also due, and follows a third consecutive BoC rate cut this week. A soft U/E rate (exp. at 6.5% from 6.4% prior) could trigger pricing for further cuts ahead.
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