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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessMNI ASIA MARKETS OPEN: Tsy Curves Reverse Course Ahead Wed CPI
MNI ASIA MARKETS ANALYSIS:Waiting For Next Inflation Shoe Drop
Key Inter-Meeting Fed Speak – Dec 2024
US TREASURY AUCTION CALENDAR: Avg 3Y Sale
FOREX: USD/JPY Eyes Bear Trigger and Pullback Low Pre-NFP
- Ahead of the NFP report for August, JPY has rallied further, extending strength on the week and keeping USD/JPY pinned toward the pullback lows posted in early August at 141.70.
- The August jobs report should prove key Friday and could set the tone for the Fed rate decision on September 18th. Consensus looks for +165k today and a lower U/E rate of 4.2%, but the whisper number looks lower at 152k and the broad USD weakness posted since the beginning of this week makes it clear markets are gearing for a soft number.
- With September pricing pinned between a 25 and a 50bps rate cut from the Fed, conviction in either direction should prove market-moving today, with the USD Index just 0.4% off the bear trigger and key support at 100.514.
- Overnight USD vols were well bid into the Thursday close, suggesting markets ascribe a high likelihood of a sharp market move upon release today. EUR/USD overnight vols topped 14 points yesterday, the highest level since mid-December's central bank deluge, meaning markets price a ~75 pip swing in the pair.
- Outside of the jobs report, the CAD equivalent is also due, and follows a third consecutive BoC rate cut this week. A soft U/E rate (exp. at 6.5% from 6.4% prior) could trigger pricing for further cuts ahead.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.