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FOREX: USD/JPY Narrows Gap With Resistance on Ishiba Election, BoJ Minutes

FOREX
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  • The greenback is regaining a small part of the recent lost ground, while JPY, NOK and EUR remain the key underperformers to begin the week.
  • Bearish technical conditions dominate in EUR/USD and spot has narrowed in on 1.0666, a key support. Below here, 1.0611 represents the next downside target, the 38.2% retracement of the Sep '22 - Jul '23 bull cycle, just ahead of the year's lows at 1.0601, printed back in April.
  • JPY remains weaker across the board, helping AUD/JPY remain just above the 200-dma and within reach of last week's post-election highs at 102.41 (the corresponding high in USD/JPY is just 85 pips above current spot at 154.71). The formal re-election of Ishiba may have bolstered JPY downside overnight, while the BoJ minutes showed very few pressing signals for a rate hike at the December BoJ meeting.
  • The Monday session sees no meaningful data releases or notable central bank speakers - keeping focus on recent Presidential election results and the gradual assembly of Trump's cabinet for 2025 as well as policy priorities. Geopolitical risk remains a focus, with Trump's election seen as a possible turning point for global conflicts including the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle-east instability.
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  • The greenback is regaining a small part of the recent lost ground, while JPY, NOK and EUR remain the key underperformers to begin the week.
  • Bearish technical conditions dominate in EUR/USD and spot has narrowed in on 1.0666, a key support. Below here, 1.0611 represents the next downside target, the 38.2% retracement of the Sep '22 - Jul '23 bull cycle, just ahead of the year's lows at 1.0601, printed back in April.
  • JPY remains weaker across the board, helping AUD/JPY remain just above the 200-dma and within reach of last week's post-election highs at 102.41 (the corresponding high in USD/JPY is just 85 pips above current spot at 154.71). The formal re-election of Ishiba may have bolstered JPY downside overnight, while the BoJ minutes showed very few pressing signals for a rate hike at the December BoJ meeting.
  • The Monday session sees no meaningful data releases or notable central bank speakers - keeping focus on recent Presidential election results and the gradual assembly of Trump's cabinet for 2025 as well as policy priorities. Geopolitical risk remains a focus, with Trump's election seen as a possible turning point for global conflicts including the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle-east instability.