MNI: BOJ Tankan: Key Sentiment Rises, Solid Capex Plans

MNI BRIEF: Trump Likely To Let Powell Serve Full Term-Moore

MNI BRIEF: Canada Household Debt Tops $3 Trillion In 3Q

MNI BOJ DEC TANKAN LARGE MFG INDEX +14; SEPT 13; MEDIAN +12

MNI INTERVIEW2: Poland To Push For EU Defence Fund

MNI BRIEF: China To Keep Stabilising Housing Market - CEWC

MNI: UK DEC GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX -17

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: Belgium ORI Facility on Friday

US EIA:NAT GAS STORAGE -190 BCF TO 3,747 BCF DEC 06 WK

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

FOREX: USD Surges Amid Likely Trump Presidency

FOREX
BulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

The USD is up strongly, tracking for its best session since March 2020, as Donald Trump odds of becoming President firmed as US vote counting continues. 

  • Betting markets have Trump election odds very high, while Decision Desk HQ last had the Trump Presidency near 87% probability. The path for a Harris victory is a narrow one, relying on winning the three 'blue wall' states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
  • Focus may switch to the House race, which Decision Desk HQ now has moderately in favor of the Democrats (see this link). This may explain some modest USD retracement from earlier highs. Our political risk analysts note this may be the only path for the Democrats to block a GOP sweep.
  • The USD BBDXY index was last up 1.3%, near 1.270.3. Earlier highs were at 1273.76, close to late June/early July highs for the index.
  • EUR has lost 1.5%, last near 1.0770 (earlier lows were at 1.0719). USD/JPY got to 154.33 in earlier trade but now sits back at 153.70. AUD/USD is off over 1.5% to 0.6535, fresh lows back to August of this year.
  • In EM FX, MXN is off around 2.9%, while CNH has lost over 1%, amid trade/tariff fears from a return of the Trump administration.
  • Cross asset signals are strongly in favor of the USD. US yields are up 10-15bps across the TSY benchmarks, with the curve steeper. The 10yr last at 4.42%, up 15bps.
  • US equity futures are up firmly, as well, +1.3%.
  • A clearer picture on the US election result should emerge as Wednesday continues. In terms of data, there are euro area final October services/composite PMIs, euro area September PPI and September German factory orders. The ECB’s Lagarde, De Guindos and Buch speak.
289 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

The USD is up strongly, tracking for its best session since March 2020, as Donald Trump odds of becoming President firmed as US vote counting continues. 

  • Betting markets have Trump election odds very high, while Decision Desk HQ last had the Trump Presidency near 87% probability. The path for a Harris victory is a narrow one, relying on winning the three 'blue wall' states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
  • Focus may switch to the House race, which Decision Desk HQ now has moderately in favor of the Democrats (see this link). This may explain some modest USD retracement from earlier highs. Our political risk analysts note this may be the only path for the Democrats to block a GOP sweep.
  • The USD BBDXY index was last up 1.3%, near 1.270.3. Earlier highs were at 1273.76, close to late June/early July highs for the index.
  • EUR has lost 1.5%, last near 1.0770 (earlier lows were at 1.0719). USD/JPY got to 154.33 in earlier trade but now sits back at 153.70. AUD/USD is off over 1.5% to 0.6535, fresh lows back to August of this year.
  • In EM FX, MXN is off around 2.9%, while CNH has lost over 1%, amid trade/tariff fears from a return of the Trump administration.
  • Cross asset signals are strongly in favor of the USD. US yields are up 10-15bps across the TSY benchmarks, with the curve steeper. The 10yr last at 4.42%, up 15bps.
  • US equity futures are up firmly, as well, +1.3%.
  • A clearer picture on the US election result should emerge as Wednesday continues. In terms of data, there are euro area final October services/composite PMIs, euro area September PPI and September German factory orders. The ECB’s Lagarde, De Guindos and Buch speak.