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Forint Corrects Post-Fed Gains Ahead of ECB Rate Decision

HUF
A firmer single currency, strength across the major equity benchmarks and lower UST yields all provided a tailwind to EM FX in the aftermath of the Fed rate decision yesterday evening, though HUF has been unable to extend its strength through to Thursday. EURHUF is trading ~0.2% in the green at typing, correcting off its overnight lows at 378.22, though performance of the local currency is in-line with that of its regional peers.
  • HUF saw some support prior to the Fed decision following confirmation that around EUR10bln of frozen funds would be unlocked by the European Commission following legislative changes to Hungarian judicial law. Despite the modest dip, which was extended amid growing bets of earlier Fed rate cuts, EURHUF remained above key support at 375.62, the Nov 14 low.
  • Today, the 380.00 handle has capped gains as markets await the ECB rate decision later in the afternoon. While the bank is not expected to change headline policy, market focus will be on any communications for rates ahead with close to 150bps of cuts already priced in for 2024.
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