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Forint Finds Slightly Firmer Footing Following Recent Weakness

HUF
The forint has partially recouped some of yesterday’s losses against the euro, as the local currency outperforms its EMEA peers. Nevertheless, today’s move in EURHUF has been more muted compared to previous sessions, with price action contained well within Wednesday’s ranges. Preliminary data showed that Hungary’s budget moved to a surplus in January, though the data did little to move the needle. Note that the government recently revised its 2024 budget deficit goal to 4.5% of GDP, up from 2.9% planned earlier.
  • The cross recorded a high of 388.94 yesterday, where it narrowed the gap to the pre-NBH highs of 390.94 seen last week. A break of that level is needed to strengthen the bullish theme. On the downside, a break of the 50-day EMA is required to instead reinstate a bearish theme – though this average currently lies some way off at 383.11.
  • Outperformance of the forint sees PLNHUF down a moderate 0.13% on the day following Wednesday’s rally. Yesterday, the cross pierced last week’s high of 89.44, though fell shy of the all-time high of 89.69 recorded in December 2022.
  • CPI data is the key release of the week tomorrow morning. As per the median estimate of the Bloomberg survey of analysts, the headline figure likely fell from +5.5% y/y in December to +4.3% in January.
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