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  • If Congress were to approve the fourth withdrawal of funds from the AFPs, Banchile economists predict the BCCh would take interest rates to 6% in 1H 2022, according to the Bloomberg report.
  • However, if the Senate rejected the fourth withdrawal of AFPs, they predict the MPR would still reach 6% but at a slower rate, towards the end of 2022. They have adjusted their TPM estimate for the end of 2021 to 3.75% from 2.75%.
    • Banchile maintains GDP growth estimate at 11.1% for 2021 and 2% in 2022
    • Raises inflation estimate for 2021 to 5.8% from 5.7%
    • Economists also raised their exchange rate estimates to CLP810 from CLP767 by year-end 2021 and to CLP790 from CLP755 by year-end 2022.