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Front-End Rates Slip As Manchin Nixes BBB
- Eurodollars are up 4-5 ticks in late 2022-mid 2024 contracts on renewed Omicron restriction fears and Manchin ruling out backing Build Back Better yesterday.
- This has more than reversed the Fed’s Waller (Board, hawkish side) saying Friday pm that the faster taper was to allow March to be “live” and it was very likely a rate hike could happen then, caveated by adding earlier balance sheet runoff from the summer of 2022 could reduce the need for additional hikes.
- EDZ2 has pulled back from session highs of 99.050 but is still up 4 ticks at 99.020. This takes it more firmly above the 20-day EMA of 99.007. Resistance is seen at that recent high of 99.050, after which the 50-day EMA of 99.123 would be eyed.
- Whilst turbulent in recent weeks, support could be seen at 98.96 (Dec 17 low on Waller March live comment) with more significant support at 98.90 (Dec low on the FOMC decision announcement prior to the conference).
- With no Fed speak scheduled ahead of Christmas, further drivers could come from new Omicron or Manchin-related BBB headlines, although the PCE deflator could also be market moving on Thu.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.