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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GILTS
Gilts are on the front foot today, following a risk-off open for markets on the back of further Russian sanctions (including Russian banks being barred from SWIFT).
- The front-end of the curve now see yields around 10bp lower than Wednesday's close and 30bp lower than the 15 February high. However, the 20-35 year segment of the curve is similar to Wednesday's close with longer-term yields higher (the 50-year yield is only 4.3bp off this year's high).
- We still think there is too much priced into the front-end with 126bp of hikes priced for this year. However, markets seem more concerned with near-term inflationary impacts than the medium-term growth impact.
- Given recent communication from the BOE, this makes sense to some degree and 10-year breakeven rates are now around 430bp, up from around 360bp in August. But there are still some big cost of living issues for the BOE to contend with that should weigh on inflation in the medium-term: the NI hike, the increase in the energy price cap etc.
- We are less convinced the BOE will keep raising rates when some of these impacts start to hit.
- 2y yields down -5.2bp today at 1.141%, 5y yields down -5.2bp today at 1.147%, 10y yields down -5.0bp today at 1.439%, 30y yields down -3.8bp today at 1.602%
- 2s10s up 0.2bp today at 29.8bp, 10s30s up 1.2bp today at 16.3bp
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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