FTN's Jim Vogel said that "with.............>

US VIEW: FTN's Jim Vogel said that "with expectations about the Fed's hike much

more confident after the September labor numbers, next week's FOMC minutes won't

be traded that closely. Instead the honor of the most important news falls

(again) to CPI on October 13. The cover shows that economists think the

inflation turn already has arrived."

- But Vogel adds that it's "not too early to think about 2019. Central bankers

concentrate solely on short-term rate policy, believing longer rates will follow

in the same direction. Historically, though, that hasn't been true for two

decades, so strategy has to consider the impact of debt leverage as well.

Unfortunately, leverage is still going in the opposite direction of expected

path for the target rate. Leverage usually wins out to keep rates stable, but

the article introduces the complexities of THE argument of 2019."