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Further Disinflationary Evidence

US DATA

The Jun Core PCE deflator reading of 0.9% Y/Y was slightly lower than expected; still plumbing the depths since April but not quite as low unrounded as it was in 2010. Reaffirms Fed's concerns (restated forcefully by Chair Powell at this week's FOMC) that the COVID crisis is more likely to prove disinflationary than inflationary.

Pretty limited market reaction though to the overall report (dollar a little softer, yields briefly tick lower) - data remains mixed and focus appears to be on more recent high-frequency consumer indicators which suggest that the consumer recovery may be stalling.

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