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Further Jobs Growth Expected With Unemployment Close To Lows


January employment data print today and they should continue to show a very tight labour market. It is expected to show that there were 20k new jobs up from the 14.6k contraction in December. The unemployment rate is forecast to be stable at 3.5%. A big surprise in the numbers is likely to be needed for this data release to change the RBA’s view. The next focus is likely to be on the wages data released on February 22

  • An expected 20k increase in employment hides a wide range of forecasts. At the upper end a 45k job gain is projected and at the other end there’s a 5k drop. They are the extremes and most predictions are between +15k and 25k.
  • The range of estimates for the unemployment rate is a lot less disparate at 3.4% to 3.6%. The participation rate is expected to be unchanged at 66.6% with forecasts ranging from 66.5% to 66.7%.

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