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Further Off Highs As US Presses Israel To Delay Gaza Invasion

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have seen a quick sell-off, helped by a combination of the US pressing Israel to delay the Gaza invasion to win a hostage release (also following a release of two US hostages after Qatar mediation) and at the margin Mester saying balance sheet policy can operate independent of the Fed Funds rate. Continued pre-weekend positioning could well be at play behind this latest move as well.
  • We are off highs for the day but haven’t travelled far from them, with cash benchmarks still 3-9bps richer, led by the belly and with the very long-end again underperforming.
  • 2Y yields at 5.09% are back at levels seen before strong retail sales on Tuesday. 10Y yields never quite made it to 5%, topping out at 4.993% today and seemingly drawing demand ahead of the weekend, now at 4.924% but -6.5bps on the day but more than 30bps higher on the week.
  • 2s10s is near unchanged on the day at -16.5bps, sitting close to recent steeps of -14.5bps.
  • TYZ3 trades at 105-30+ below session highs of 106-06, lifting off yesterday’s post-Powell low of 105-10+. Resistance is seen at 106-15+ (Oct 18 high).
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