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Futures lower despite Bank on hold

GILTS
  • Gilt futures are lower in spite of the BOE holding rates against market pricing of around 50/50 going into the decision.
  • There has been a steepening of the curve with 2-year gilt yields higher on the day - but largely in line with where they were going into the decision, while 10-year yields are around 3bp higher post-decision at the time of writing.
  • The lack of forward guidance means that November is still in play if we get some further upside surprises to the data - but we expect most analysts to think that we have seen the last hike now (and markets no longer fully price another hike).
  • 10s30s had flattened around 0.8bp in the 15 minutes preceding the decision, but is now back to the levels it has been through most of the day.
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