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Guidance And QE Description In Line W Expectations, But Still Qs For Powell

FED

All in all, the decision is more or less in line w expectations, including a shift from 'market functioning' to 'accommodation' on QE, and fairly vague fwd guidance in line w framework review. The surprise is the dissenting by Kaplan and Kashkari on forward guidance language.

That fwd guidance has plenty of questions in itself, mainly the same ones that came up after Jackson Hole: e.g. how long is "some time", how much inflation is "moderate", and how will it be known to be "on track". The latter term appeared in the previous FOMC statement but did not appear in the new Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, whereas "some time" and "moderate(ly)" did. Are they already "on track" given that 2023 inflation is seen at the 2% target and unemp at 4% (below 4.1% longer-term) in the new Summary of Economic Projections, or is that 2% in 2023 not enough?

We await Chair Powell at the press conference in 10 minutes.

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