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Gains Amid Broad USD Losses, RBA Financial Stability Review Out Today

AUD

AUD/USD was bettered by only NZD in the G10 FX space, finishing 0.70% higher for Thursday's session. We couldn't breach the 0.6380 level, while supported was evident on pull backs to 0.6325/30. The pair tracks near 0.6370 in early Friday dealing.

  • The technical set up is still seen as negative. Weakness this week signals scope for a deeper correction, with 0.6215 targeted on the downside (a Fibonacci projection). On the upside, key trend resistance is at 0.6522, the Aug 30 and Sep 1 high. Initial resistance is at 0.6402, the 20-day EMA.
  • The steeper US yield curve, amid generally dovish Fed speak, weighed on broader USD sentiment. US equities finished marginally weaker.
  • Commodity indices were mixed, the Bloomberg aggregate index around flat, despite another fall in oil prices. The metals index though eased a further 0.80%, its fourth straight decline, which may have capped AUD upside to a degree. The chart below overlays this index against spot AUD/USD.
  • The main focus today will be the RBA Financial Stability Review.

Fig 1: AUD/USD Versus Bloomberg Metals Index

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

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