Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Down on Week

Front month TTF is set for a sharp weekly net loss of around 14%, with pressure coming from healthy supplies, seasonally high stock levels, and below-average storage withdrawals levels.

• TTF JAN 24 down -4.7% at 33.2€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -4.8% at 33.41€/MWh
• Latest two-week weather forecasts for NW Europe suggest temperatures well above the seasonal norm throughout December, with a small dip below-norm at the end of the month.
• European natural gas storage was down to 89.74% full as of 13 December, well above the five-year average of 79.09% according to GIE data.
• Above normal temperatures have limited withdrawals in recent days. Net stock withdrawals stood at 3949.8GWh on 13 December, below the five-year average of 5839.8GWh/d for the same day.
• Pipeline supplies into Europe from Norway are today at 356.5mcm/d and still above the five-year average.
• European LNG sendout rose to 426mcm/d on 13 December, the highest since 7 December.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in February 2024, March 2024 and April 2024 according to BNEF.
• Trafigura bought two January LNG cargoes for the delivery to Northeast Asia via Platts’ MOC window, traders told Bloomberg.
• Gazprom expects a large increase in LNG capacity in the long-term, according to Deputy Head of the Department - Head of the Directorate at Gazprom Kirill Polous.