Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Rises

TTF front month found support during the day amid slightly cooler weather forecast, reversing some of the losses in recent days.

• TTF NOV 23 up 2.5% at 37.9€/MWh
• The latest weather forecast shows the warm weather across Europe starting to dissipate by the middle of next week. Temperatures in NW Europe could potentially dip below normal into the second half of the month although parts of the Mediterranean will remain warm.
• In the third European joint gas tender round, the aggregated gas demand amounted to 16.49bcm submitted by 39 European countries, the EC said.
• Global gas demand is expected to rise in the next decade which will require a 12.5% surge in production between 2023-2030, according to Rystad Energy.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated slightly lower than yesterday at 264.1mcm/d. Outages are expected to gradually end this week falling from 97mcm/d today to just 20mcm/d on 12 Oct.
• Norway’s share of the German gas supply has risen to 48% in Jan-Sept this year, up from 20% in 2021, as Norway is replacing Russia as the country’s largest natural gas supplier, according to the Norwegian Ministry of Ministry of Petroleum and Energy.
• Elengy’s Fos Cavaou LNG terminal will restart sendout on 9 October, following annual maintenance that ended on 2 October, Elengy data showed.
• European natural gas storage is up to 96.15% full on 2 Oct according to GIE data compared to the five year average of 87.75%.
• LNG sendout to Europe increase up to 309mcm/d on 2 Oct compared to around 275mcm/d seen over the previous week but and still well below levels around 375mcm/d seen this time last year.
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in November, December and January 2024. The gas price spread between Asia and Europe is $2.84/MMBtu in November.
• Trafigura and Vitol are offering LNG cargoes to Pakistan for December delivery in a tender that closed on 4 October, according to traders with knowledge of the matter via Bloomberg.
• Kazakhstan may begin importing natural gas from next year given the likelihood that output will drop, Qazaqgas First Deputy CEO Meirbek Ikhsanov said in an energy conference in Astana reported by Bloomberg.
• Pakistan purchased one LNG cargo for December delivery from Vitol at a roughly 13% premium to current spot prices, according to traders with knowledge of the information, marking the first spot purchase in over one year.