Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Weakens Further

Front month TTF prices reversed initial gains after peaking at 41.75€/MWh today. The market is maintaining a bearish tone as LNG supplies, inventories, and Norwegian flows offset the recent cold weather in Europe. TTF is down around 11% on the start of the week.

• TTF JAN 24 down -3% at 38.75€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -3.1% at 39€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast above normal next week after warming over the weekend.
• European natural gas storage is back within the previous five-year range at 92.15% full on Dec 6 according to GIE data.
• Pipeline supplies into Europe from Norway up again to 351.2mcm/d.
• Withdrawals rates have been holding above normal since Nov 26 to bring total European storage back down within the previous five-year range.
• Fluxys LNG is offering regasification slots at Zeebrugge LNG for Jan and Feb, according to a press release.
• EU have reached a provisional agreement to cut average primary energy use in residential buildings by 16% by 2030 and by 20-22% by 2035 as buildings currently account for about 40% of the EU’s total energy use according to Montel.
• European gas prices are still at risk of high volatility and spikes next year despite the gradual softening in 2023 according to Trafigura.
• EU overall gas demand remains tepid and is expected about 8% below 2022 levels in 2023 according to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Winter Outlook.
• European prompt gas prices could fall below the summer if Jan and Feb are mild and drive a contango to minimise storage withdrawals in late-February and March according to ICIS.
• The new Bulgaria-Serbia pipeline could be completed by Dec 10 according to Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov.